The ATS MOV is 8-7 ATS through week 8. This weekend, there are a few games that this strategy believes is worthy of consideration for investment.

This time, we’re using the last four games home or away for each team to assess their ATS margin. For example, if a team is playing on the road, we’re using the ATS results of their last four road games to determine their ATS margin.

The first recommendation is Green Bay -9.5 because the Packers are averaging +7.5 on the road while Tampa Bay is averaging -10 at home. The Bucs are getting just under their average while the Packers are giving up a couple of points more than their average. Also, the Packers are 7-2 ATS as a road favorite since 2007. In that same span, the Bucs are 1-5 ATS as a home dog. Laying 9.5 isn’t easy but take note: Tampa Bay is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS as a dog of +9.5 or more since 2005.

Next, the ATS MOV strategy recommends the San Francisco 49ers -4, not so much because they maintain a zero point average ATS margin at home but because the Titans average an awful -19 point margin on the road. And receiving only one-fifth the deficit doesn’t make a good bet.

As a road dog since 2008, the Titans are 1-2 ATS with an average SU margin of -23. As for the 49ers, laying the home chalk has them at 4-2-1 ATS. And since 2007, when the 49ers are favored by 4 or more, they are 6-1 SU with an average margin of victory of 8 points.

The final recommendation is the Philadelphia Eagles -3 vs. the Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles have an ATS margin of +3.5 points at home while the Cowboys are averaging -10 points on the road. The Cowboys getting +3 may not be enough to cover against the Eagles.

The Dallas Cowboys are 1-4 ATS as a road dog since 2007. Since 2000, when Dallas is a road dog at Philadelphia, they are 1-7 SU with an AMOV of -17 points and an ATS AMOV of -11 points. In fact, 2000 was the only season where the Cowboys lost by 3 points or less SU.

When the Eagles are favored at home, their SU record is 8-2 since 2008 with the smallest winning margin being 9 points. If you believe the Eagles can win this contest straight up, giving up -3 is a very reasonable bet.